For anyone in the art world still in denial about the recession, this month’s New York spring auctions present a stark truth.

Christie’s New York had a slew of works from a number of single-owner collections on the block, namely Chicago commodities trader Alan Press and his wife Dorothy, the late Boston Institute of Contemporary Art trustee Gerald Fineberg, Sophie Danforth, publishing billionaire SI Newhouse, and the Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. Total sales estimates were between $760 million and $1.1 billion. Even amidst concerns of a cooling art market, dealers remained optimistic.

Yet reality begged to differ. Reports from the Christie’s S.I. Newhouse and 20th Century collection sales on 11 May presented a rather dismal picture, not to mention the straggling pace of bidding. Total sales amounted to only $506.5 million. For its first contemporary art focused evening auction during a marquee week on 15 May in New York, sales totaled $98.9 million with buyer’s fees.

One of the key works on the block at the 20th Century collection evening sale was Burning Gas Station (1966-69) by Ed Ruscha, a rare appearance given that it was only the second painting from Ruscha’s Stations series to be auctioned. Sale estimates were from $20 to $30 million. During the session itself, within a minute, the bidding for Burning Gas Station started at $17 million and hammered at $19 million.

It does appear that even the most moneyed auction houses are struggling to outwit the reality of a downtrodden economy. Sales from Sotheby’s Modern art evening sale and single-owner Mo Ostin auction on 16 May also totaled below estimate at $363.9 million, or $427 million with fees.

There is yet another trend we are likely to observe increasingly in these endlessly volatile times – consolidation.

In the years leading up to and during the pandemic, a variety of fiscal and logistical pressures brought on a surge of mergers and acquisitions in the art market. Specifically, 2019 brought on the trend of consolidation amongst small auction houses. For example, Leslie Hindman Auctioneers in Chicago merged in January 2019 with Cincinnati-based Cowan’s Auctions, to keep up with the likes of Christie’s and Sotheby’s “expanding their digital reach and investment in the middle market”.

Even digitally skewered platforms were unscathed. LiveAuctioneers, an American online platform for fine and decorative arts, antiques and luxury goods, was bought over by Auction Technology Group as part of its curated online marketplaces and auction-technology solutions in 2021.

Last year June saw Bonhams acquire French auction house, Cornette de Saint-Cyr, its fourth acquisition in a year, following Bukowskis in Sweden, Skinner in Boston and Bruun Rasmussen in Denmark. These moves were part of an effort by the auction house to expand and diversify sources for its sale offerings, especially for its collector base in Asia where the demand for western decorative and fine art has been growing over recent years.

More recently, in a bid to source for more contemporary art which tends to attract high value sales at auctions, one of China’s biggest auction houses, Poly Auction, is setting up offices in London and Seoul. Unsurprisingly, at least one industry expert speculated that from a strategic point of view, a merger between Phillips and Poly, would “turbocharge each of these two companies.”

However, in most industries, consolidation has led to a dearth of diversity and innovation amongst monopolizing players in the market. This could pose far-reaching consequences for the auction market, especially when it is already being questioned as an arbiter of taste.

This analysis was originally commissioned by London-based Pictorum advisory for their May newsletter.